Vol. 4, No. 5, May 2007
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Derby Darlings
How to pick the winners in racing’s most popular contest
For one afternoon, the focus of horse racing changes. A sport inherently damaged—its trifecta takeout percentage rivals the worst odds of casino games—ignores the problem for one spectacular event. The May 5 Kentucky Derby, sport’s most exciting two minutes, dwarfs the ailments of the industry. Casinos, live tracks and simulcast parlors boast patrons wagering serious money.
A 20-horse field and a nationwide betting craze exceeding $100 million guarantees great payouts. Superb horses are going to be overlooked. Barbaro, the 6-1 second favorite, won the 2006 Derby. Yet his exacta with Bluegrass Cat returned a whopping $587. That’s a terrific return for $4.
The trifecta, which included Steppenwolfer, paid more than $5,500 for a $1 ticket. The $2 superfecta paid $59,839. Hello. A trifecta ticket with Barbaro on top, the entire field second and Steppenwolfer third would have cost just $19. A superfecta play with Barbaro atop the next three finishers would only have cost $6 and returned nearly $30,000.
So, as Derby Day approaches, ignore the hype and perfect an angle. Yes, Notional, Curlin and a host of Derby Prep winners will generate headlines. They may even win the race. But even if they do (only four of the last 28 Derby favorites have), a gold mine looms in the second through fourth spots.
Outlook
Make the most of your Derby experience. Here are a few tips:
• Examine the background. Horses are raced more lightly than in previous years because big money exists in stud fees. Owners race their animals just long enough to obtain a high price for delivering offspring. At Derby time, the three-year-olds have hardly competed, providing precious little form to judge them by. Nobody knows the best Derby horse at post-time, including the owner.
• Distance. It is a full mile and a quarter. No horse has done this in competition. Handicapping a horse at a one mile is one thing. The extra quarter-mile, however, is a critical variable.
• Pace is everything. The fastest early horse often becomes locked into a speed duel with a couple of rivals. Unable to relax on the lead, he usually fades in the stretch. Few remember who led the Derby after seven furlongs, the first 80 percent of the distance, because the horse often finishes off the board. Barbaro stalked, circled and romped home by six lengths.
• Traffic. Worse than a summer weekend at the shore, the two-turn race with 20 hard-charging thoroughbreds creates congestion. Some horses inevitably receive a bad trip. They become squeezed around the turn, forced to check stride and lose momentum. Conversely, some jockeys expend significant early energy with their horse trying to establish a good position. This taxes the animal later.
• Crazy finish. Late lightning creates the crazy finish. Blue Grass Cat and Steppenwolfer spilled into the money in the last couple of strides last year. The final 100 yards of the race often changes the financial picture. As horses quit, the long shots inherit a piece of the pie.
You will find a pack of frontrunners, stalkers and closers. Historically, the winner comes from the stalking group. But that may be three or four horses. Hope to get lucky if you’ve already picked the right angle.
Watch other variables, including weather patterns. Heavy rain changes the terrain. If it falls one day before the Derby, you may have a “good” or tiring track. Should it pour heavily that day, the front-running “slop” horses often won’t look back. Heavy rain supersedes traditional handicapping insight.
Betting
For openers, place a win wager on your favorite.
Then consider “wheeling” the horse in exactas. That would cost $38 for a $2 ticket and guarantee a payout if the horse wins. There’s nothing wrong with “back-wheeling” either, by placing him second with the entire field being first.
Don’t overlook key entries and partial wheels, effective in trifectas and superfectas. Key entry means placing a horse on top of several others. A $6 investment allows you to put three horses underneath the winner. A $12 wager allows four horses to run in the second or third spot. If you go this route, however, try to place your horse second with the same group. That’s the partial wheel. Avoid the shutout. Simulcast lines are long on Derby Day. It’s wise to make your initial wager more than 10 minutes before post, and then unload late money if motivated. Nothing hurts worse than seething behind someone in a betting or machine line. As he fiddles, you don’t want to burn.
The Derby is a panorama of majesty, racing luck and betting angles. Savor it regardless of outcome as America embraces its latest hero. Barbaro, sadly, was euthanized this year because of a leg injury, but will be forever remembered by racing fans.
AC Racing Roars Again
This may be the last four-day live racing season at Atlantic City Race Course. Expansion plans forecast a longer meet in 2008 and 2009. This year, the schedule was set for April 25 and 26, May 2-3. All post times were 3 p.m. Each card had eight races and full 12-horse fields were expected.
For bettors, this shaped up as another goldmine. The fields combine horses in relatively good shape, those experimenting on the turf and a number who simply find a good matchup to race. The track exceeded 5,000 fans on its closing day last year, enhancing forecasts of a new facility built next to this one in 2009. The expansion process is going through several approval stages, but the prospects remain upbeat.
Surf Opens Again
The Atlantic City Surf opens its 10th season May 24 at Bernie Robbins Stadium. This campaign launches a new era. After years of struggling in May and September, the Surf joined the Can-Am league, running from late May until September 3. The reduced home schedule in May and September may propel the Surf to its first season of profit.
Another new twist involves Jeff Ball. The most successful manager in Surf history has become the assistant general manager to Brendan Fairfield, a Holy Spirit High School graduate who has returned home to lead the team. Chris Carminucci is the new manager.
Tickets, naturally, are reasonable. They range from $5 to $11. No better family entertainment package exists in Atlantic City. Watch for a June profile on the next era of the Surf.
Soccer Stadium
Big-time investment with a casino twist graces the area. Euro Sports Center, a 27,000-square-foot soccer field in an air-inflated dome, opened late in March in the Egg Harbor City Industrial Park.
John O’Brien, treasurer of the center, has had serious discussions with casino properties about staging leagues there. Soccer leagues thrive in the Atlantic City gaming industry and many may finally obtain a permanent home.
The state-of-the-art facility broke ground last April. It will also have a 1,400-square-foot martial arts studio. Former casino executive Matt Driver has visited the facility and may consider bringing the Diablos, a professional women’s soccer team, into the Euro Sports Center. The South Jersey Barons also attended the grand opening.
The cost of the project was close to $1 million and was completed by four private investors.
