Casino Connection Atlantic City

Doing the Derby

Five reasons why the Run for the Roses is the best race to bet the longshots

by Dave Bontempo

Kentucky Derby officials term their $2 million race the "Run For the Roses." Hardened sports fans call it "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." What it's really become is "Moolah Mayhem." Financial implications engulf racing's most noteworthy event, unfolding May 6 before more than 150,000 fans at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. Casinos from Atlantic City to Las Vegas contribute to a wagering pool exceeding $100 million. When the 20-horse field breaks, thundering ovations greet the champion three-year-olds converging into the middle of the track. It's a beautiful spectacle, for numerous reasons. For seven ticket-holders last year, it was beautiful for one reason—$864,253. You read that right. A $1 superfecta on Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and Don't Get Mad returned that phenomenal figure. Okay, Giacomo was 50-1, the longest Derby winner since 1913. And Closing Argument was 71-1. But even someone born October 18 could have played his birthday and pocketed $9,814 from the exacta. The trifecta returned $66,567.40, with Afleet Alex, the second choice at 9-2, in it. This was an aberration, but the Derby already is Longshot Heaven. Of the last 27 winners, only two have been favorites. This is one race to bet bombs-away longshots, wheel some combinations and spread the bread. [Parity Personified] Here are five reasons to "Bet the Bombs." 1. Racing has a narrow performance perspective. A horse that finishes five lengths behind the winner only lost by one second. Two seconds—translating to 10 lengths—separate a champion from a "mediocre" horse. That means a little racing luck, which occurs in large fields, can help some horses improve enough to turn the tables. 2. Traffic problems tend to equalize fields. A horse posted outside must circle the field or make a daring cut inside to avoid adding substantial yardage to his route. Horses cutting in force others to "check" or partially break stride. Once horses are checked, they have a difficult time rallying. Some are boxed in for the whole race and never have a chance. 3. A hot pace compromises top horses. Favored Bellamy Road became embroiled in a sizzling duel last year. George Steinbrenner's horse led to the one-mile mark, then collapsed like a folding chair. Giacomo passed 10 horses in the final half of a mile and 18 of them from just after the start of the race. 4. The distance is virgin territory. No competitor in the field has run the 1 1/4 mile route. It is difficult to ascertain which animal is likely to stretch out successfully. 5. Check these recent winners, all in double figures. Charismatic (30-1), War Emblem (23-1), Monarchos (12-1) and Funny Cide (12-1) joined Giacomo as unlikely heroes. [Playing Probabilities] Granted, selecting top finishers in a field so mysterious is murder. Random luck must have a place. "It's the biggest amateur betting race of the year," says Tim Cramer, a race book manager for Atlantic City Race Course, which draws a huge crowd (including casino personnel) for this event. "I'll bet six of those seven superfecta ticket holders last year were numbers players. That's fine." Birthdays, anniversaries, family size and names create substantial big-ticket victories via numbers playing. For the scientific breed, here are some handicapping and betting variables. [Handicapping] Separate the field into front-running or closing horses. A pack of three or four sprinters makes the race honest. A hot pace encourages the stalkers to win. If you bet the stalkers, hope for the first half-mile to be run in the neighborhood of 46 seconds, or faster. Otherwise, speed may hold up. Don't forget weather conditions. A sloppy track creates an intimidating variable. Some horses might be skilled enough to handle the condition, but haven't run under these circumstances. One thing for certain is the value of speed. In 2002, War Emblem sneaked out to the lead in the slop and stole the race. Two years ago, Lion Heart and Smarty Jones held the lead after the first quarter. Smarty Jones passed Lion Heart but the two romped home ahead of the field. Check the track condition from the day before and on race day to determine how the speed-versus-closer battle shapes up, or whether there's a track "bias." This would often concern the uneven way rain drains from the surface, leaving some post positions in relative quicksand. [Numbers Fun] Cramer says the $1 Superfecta, wheeling Giacomo and Closing Argument over the rest of the field, would have cost $324 for a $1 ticket. Other considerations involve a key. Put a horse first and second with four others in the trifecta for $24. Or play with five horses, for $40. Whatever your bankroll, there's never been a better time to invest. This is one time when racing rewards the little player with tremendous odds.

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